The New Nigeria Peoples Party and the Osun State chapter of the African Democratic Congress have said economic hardship will play a decisive role in determining President Bola Tinubu’s fate in the 2027 general elections.
The opposition disclosed this in response to the wave of defections that recently hit their camps, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party, and NNPP.
No fewer than three state governors had, in the last two months, left the PDP for the All Progressives Congress, which has also attracted many NNPP and PDP lawmakers in Kano and Kaduna at the National Assembly.
In September 2025, the National Chairman of the APC, Prof Nentawe Yilwatda, attributed the growing defections of the governors to Tinubu’s governance style and performance, which he said would continue to draw more opposition figures to the APC ahead of the 2027 elections.
Speaking in separate interviews with Sunday PUNCH, NNPP spokesperson Dipo Johnson and the Publicity Secretary of the ADC in Osun State, Oluwaseun Abosede, argued that the 2027 polls would be shaped not by defections or political manoeuvring.
They stated that the election would be determined by the harsh economic realities confronting Nigerians under the APC administration.
Johnson also dismissed suggestions that the NNPP was losing strength after recent defections in the National Assembly.
According to him, the party still retains the majority of its 19 House of Representatives members, insisting that only four, “maybe five,” have left.
He accused the APC of inducing lawmakers with money, describing the defections as a sign of desperation rather than genuine political advantage.
“The NNPP hasn’t lost all its House of Reps members. Out of 19, I think we’ve lost four now. I know quite a few of them who want to go to the APC because of the money they are giving them in the National Assembly. But we still have a majority who are still there,” he said.
Johnson argued that the dynamics of the 2027 election would be different from previous cycles, stressing that voters would be driven by survival and the worsening economic situation.
“Unlike then, the 2027 election is going to be between the Nigerian people and the government in power. It will not be one that exists only between political parties. The people would have to choose their economic, social, and even security survival under this administration. And it is not a choice,” he said.
Johnson further noted that defections by governors would not necessarily translate to electoral advantage for the ruling party.
He warned that many of those who switched sides “based on their own selfish reasoning” might be shocked when their supporters refuse to follow them to the APC.
The NNPP spokesperson added that talk of an opposition coalition remains premature, noting that the ruling party was known to target and destabilise opposition alliances when they emerge too early.
According to him, the “real coalition” for 2027 may not yet be visible.
On his party, Abosede rejected claims that the opposition was losing ground, insisting that the APC was the one “in crisis,” despite attracting more governors and elected officials.
He described the defections as evidence of desperation, not strength.
“Some members crossing to the APC is not an indication of strength or weakness. It is a party that appears to be desperate to get more people, and they are inducing them to come. It is actually they that are losing ground. The APC government itself has collapsed. It is totally in crisis,” he said.
Abosede argued that the failing economy would shape voter choices in 2027.
He said the logic of democracy is straightforward: when a government is not performing, citizens will opt for another option.
“The logic of democracy is that when one party is not doing well, people will choose another party. That is just basic democratic logic. The country is unraveling fast under the APC. Even the APC itself is in crisis,” he said.
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