In its 27years of existence, Osun State, has witnessed one of Nigeria’s fiercest democracies by boasting of no less than four democratically elected governors ever since. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola being the first and only thus far to successfully complete two terms in the Bola Ige House. However, this feat, though cannot be underrated, is impossible to achieve alone.
When minds are cast back to 2014 election in retrospect, which was the first election in Osun State to be truly won by the same Political Party for a second term, the former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, a number of PDP members and Chieftains decamped and joined hands with the APC to achieve the impossible. This alliance was described by many as the ‘punch that dealt the final blow’ in the Osun 2014 elections.
Former Governors Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Late Isiaka Adeleke and Adebisi Akande, came together to form a human trilogy of support and endorsement for the gubernatorial election bid of the incumbent Governor of that time, Ogbeni Aregbesola. With the human trilogy, Aregbesola became set for a flawless kind of victory, the kind of victory that hands you a second term in a state where it hasn’t been done before, for despite Omisore’s popularity and financial capability the tables were turned against him, his party, the PDP, got less lethal and her strength withered with members decamping. With all tables in his favour, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who started his political activities as a radical/socialist student in his days at The Polytechnic Ibadan, won the election with over a hundred thousand votes more than the PDP’s candidate, Senator Iyiola Omisore.
And so did APC cruise to victory in 2014. Unfortunately, the most critical moment in visionary politics is not, before the victory, neither is it at the moment of the victory, but after the victory. This is when the victory is sustained and the vision, nurtured. Unfortunately, the APC did not seem to get this right, or perhaps merely ignored it. It is widely believed that ‘you don’t bite the finger that feeds you’, however, it is equally important for one not to leave the finger uncomfortable or merely idle. It is at moments like this that the brilliance and intelligence of politicians are seen. Hon. Soji Adagunodo, having put his house (Osun PDP) in order has made the opposition party a welcome ground for everyone, including uncomfortable ‘fingers’. The likes of Prince Oyinlola, Alhaji Diekola, and even honour the memory of the Late Isiaka Adeleke by welcoming and eventually fielding (now Senator) Ademola Adeleke for the last Osun-West Senatorial election.
The Adeleke family, though was well compensated (by APC) for their support in 2014 by giving the late Isiaka Adeleke the Osun West Senatorial ticket, but the inability of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola to effectively manage the relationship with the family after their brother’s death and perhaps give the ticket to the younger Ademola turned another table and moved the family with the deep pocket to the opposition. These are examples of moments when the ruling party let off their guard and were not at 100%. As expected, misused fingers would gently move on to feed mouths that are grateful, or more needful. Prince Oyinlola, despite being instrumental to the victory in 2014 got no rewards until September 2017, also there are getting reports about a possible coalition between the Obasanjo-Oyinlola led ADC and the PDP at the federal level, this coalition means they’ll get to work in some peculiar states too like Osun. So the Obasanjo-Oyinlola angle may be another turned table for APC, the same way it turned against PDP in their favour in 2014. In the same vein, former APC Chieftain Alhaji Diekola left the APC at a period where everyone needs every ally in reach.
Obviously, the tables are turning and may have turned completely by September 2018. Osun West Senatorial district election perhaps served as a test of popularity and a miniature mock election for the Osun 2018 gubernatorial election, it shows that several calculations that worked previously (Osun 2014) in favour of the incumbent party, would most likely not work. Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Irewole, Iwo, amongst others are now seeming safe havens to the opposition. While the likes of highly populated LGAs like Ife Central, South, and North due to seeming neglect thrown at them by the APC could so easily throw their voting weight behind the opposition too. It is however important for the APC to go back to the leave the comfort that the throne brings with it and reach for the drawing board, while the Adagunodo-led PDP must maintain the peace, unity, and democracy in its house even after the primaries, as only unity can help ensure a totally turned table.
As the election is about 18 weeks out, political permutations are on and the public is watching with their ears to the ground. While everyone hopes for a free, fair, and favourable election for the masses. Osun a rire o.
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